ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032215 
SPC MCD 032215 
ILZ000-MOZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

Valid 032215Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 131 through the remainder of the afternoon. Large
hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats, but
a tornado is also possible, particularly with any supercell
structures.

DISCUSSION...Organized linear segments and a discrete supercell have
matured across northern and central portions of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 131 over the past couple of hours. A couple of severe
hail/damaging gust reports have recently been received with the more
discrete convection across west-central IL. Here, temperatures have
been able to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with mid 60s F
dewpoints contributing to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. While mid
to upper tropospheric flow is not particularly strong, modest
veering with height is contributing to 35+ kts of effective bulk
shear, supporting updraft organization. The severe threat is
expected to remain locally higher with the more discrete storms
across central IL, where instability is more robust relative to
points farther north. Low-level shear is weak across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 131 overall, but given some directional shear in
the boundary layer, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with
any supercell structures.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   38498907 38229046 38379199 40449091 40999056 41168998
            41168913 41028879 40528785 39998774 39338810 38748861
            38498907 

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