ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030004 
SPC MCD 030004 
KSZ000-NEZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far southern NE into northwestern and
north-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

Valid 030004Z - 030130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe/damaging wind threat should focus
across parts of far southern Nebraska into northwestern and
north-central Kansas over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently congealed into a line across parts
of northwestern KS and far southern NE along a surface cold front.
Current expectations are for this line to surge east-southeastward
this evening, where MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, 35-40 kt of deep-layer
shear, and minimal MLCIN should support continued storm organization
and intensity in the short term. Isolated large hail will remain a
concern with any supercell embedded within the line. But, scattered
severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph will likely be the main
severe threat in the next 1-2 hours across northwestern into
north-central KS given the increasingly linear nature of the
convection and the favorably mixed boundary layer supporting
efficient downdraft accelerations.

..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39180149 40190067 40149989 39869914 39479906 39139920
            38589968 38480054 38640118 39180149 

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