ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011608 
SPC MCD 011608 
TXZ000-011745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Sat May 01 2021

Areas affected...south central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011608Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms could pose a risk for locally strong, but
probably sub-severe wind gusts as they continue northeast through
South Central Texas through 18Z. At this time a ww will probably not
be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A forced line of storms has recently become better
organized just southwest of San Antonio and is moving northeast at
near 30 kt. This band of storms is developing in association with a
northward-moving MCV. Downstream the atmosphere is only marginally
unstable with around 500 J/kg MUCAPE and weak lapse rates. VWP data
show easterly flow through the lowest 2 km which, given the weak
cap, should augment deep convergence along the leading gust front
and help to maintain forward propagation next couple hours. The
widespread low clouds will significantly limit degree of boundary
layer destabilization in the near term, which combined with only
modest mid-level flow and weak lapse rates should limit overall
severe threat. Nevertheless, a few instances of strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out as this activity continues northeast next couple
hours.

..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   28799894 29139908 29449914 29749861 29559814 29039843
            28799894 

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