ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281352 
SPC MCD 281352 
MOZ000-ARZ000-281545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northern AR and southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281352Z - 281545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue this morning with a
cluster of storms moving eastward, including the potential for
damaging winds and a tornado. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms has developed
this morning across northwestern AR and southwestern MO. VWPs from
KLZK/KSRX indicate around 30-35 kt of 0-1 km shear is present, along
with a favorable veering/strengthening wind profile with height
through mid levels. Low-level rotation has been noted with a couple
circulations within the line. An isolated tornado threat may
continue through the morning across parts of southern MO and
northern AR where rich low-level moisture, a weakly unstable
airmass, and strong shear at low levels can support surface-based
storms. Given the linear nature of the ongoing convection, damaging
winds may be the primary severe threat. Filtered diurnal heating
through a cloud deck downstream of this ongoing activity should
support a gradual increase in boundary-layer instability over the
next couple of hours. Although convective evolution remains somewhat
uncertain this morning, downstream watch issuance may be needed if
storms maintain their current intensity.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35369122 35249244 35359364 35959328 36859321 36929183
            36849004 36178978 35549013 35369122 

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