ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 280101 SPC MCD 280101 OKZ000-TXZ000-280230- Mesoscale Discussion 0441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113... Valid 280101Z - 280230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase across the region, with at least some signs of increasing organization. It is possible that this may continue into late evening, with increasing potential for strong surface gusts. A new severe thunderstorm watch will probably be issued prior to 9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...A belt of 30-35 kt southerly flow at 850 mb appears to be contributing to a zone of focused low-level convergence along an axis from near Snyder, TX into areas west of Wichita Falls, TX, and enhanced low-level warm advection west/northwest of Wichita Falls into the Fort Sill, OK vicinity. Associated lift has supported an intensifying linear band of thunderstorms, with embedded stronger more discrete/supercellular structures, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear and instability. With the onset of boundary-layer cooling, the narrow corridor of steep low-level lapse to the east of the ongoing activity will begin to stabilize during the next few hours. However the southerly low-level jet is forecast to be maintained, with at least some further strengthening through 03-06Z. Increasing moisture return above the stabilizing boundary layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, might be sufficient to support continuing upscale convective growth across parts of the Texas South Plains and Big Country into parts of southwestern Oklahoma this evening. If this occurs, a few downbursts may become increasingly possible along with strengthening surface cold pools, accompanied be increasing potential for strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32330121 33140035 33949940 34519915 34809852 34949795 34649735 33549800 32679897 31950042 31980094 32330121 NNNN