ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 240043 SPC MCD 240043 OKZ000-TXZ000-240245- Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Areas affected...Northwest Texas and Southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 100... Valid 240043Z - 240245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue to diminish over the next hour, but a wind/hail threat will likely persist into the late evening hours. A new watch may be needed to address this potential. DISCUSSION...The notable supercell with a history of producing tornadoes and large hail along the Red River Valley has become outflow dominant over the past 30 minutes and is growing upscale within a cluster of new convective development. Despite this, the evolving cluster continues to show a strong presentation in IR imagery and resides within a favorable environment featuring 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 knots of effective bulk shear. This should continue to support a hail and damaging wind potential for the next 1-2 hours. Given that these storms remain along/just north of a weak warm frontal zone where 0-1 km shear is maximized (per recent KFDR VWP observations), a brief tornado or two will remain possible in the near term. Continued upscale growth, along with a gradual increase in surface-based inhibition and weakening low-level shear in the vicinity of the surface low, should continue to reduce the tornado potential heading into the late evening hours and favor a wind/hail threat. A similar evolution is anticipated for a second developing cluster of storms further upstream along the OK/TX Panhandle border. A new watch, or a watch extension, may be considered to address the wind/hail threat by 01 UTC. ..Moore.. 04/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34959997 34989929 34879856 34789778 34729657 34149620 33409652 33409774 33559838 33719908 33909968 34110006 34330019 34959997 NNNN