ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231743 
SPC MCD 231743 
LAZ000-TXZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 231743Z - 231945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg.
Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
extent into western LA.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31409615 31959599 32149579 32279532 32339467 32299415
            32249381 32019325 31359265 30879249 30119245 29599276
            29629370 29349443 29099492 28999525 29059570 29179596
            29449613 29869626 31409615 

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