ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190836 
SPC MCD 190836 
FLZ000-191100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

Areas affected...Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190836Z - 191100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will continue from near the
Tampa area eastward across the central Florida Peninsula. The threat
should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A plume of mid-level moisture
extends from near the shortwave trough east-northeastward across
central Florida. Thunderstorm development is taking place within
this plume in a moist airmass situated across the southern and
central Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints across central Florida
are generally near 70 F which is contributing to moderate
instability (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Thunderstorms are expected to
continue to develop early this morning from near Tampa Bay eastward
across central Florida, along an east-to-west corridor of enhanced
low-level convergence. According to the Melbourne, Florida WSR-88D
VWP, 0-6 km shear is near 40 kt and there is some veering of the
winds with height in the boundary layer. This will support a couple
supercells. The stronger rotating storms could produce isolated
large hail and perhaps a few strong wind gusts.

..Broyles/Grams.. 04/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27618035 27278098 27028204 27058246 27458266 27858263
            28108210 28418072 27618035 

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