ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 172043 SPC MCD 172043 FLZ000-172245- Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle and northern FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172043Z - 172245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and move across portions of the FL Panhandle and northwest FL peninsula through this evening. An isolated stronger storm may produce strong wind gusts and perhaps hail, but a watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and portions of the FL Panhandle/northern FL peninsula in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front. Modest warm advection combined with ascent associated within the right entrance region of an approaching 300-mb speed maxima will contribute to the thunderstorm development, with storms moving east across the discussion area through this evening. The front should begin to lift slowly north tonight and, despite poor mid-level lapse rates, RAP forecast soundings depict MUCAPE averaging 500 to locally 1000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Strong westerly mid-level flow will contribute to ample shear for organized storms. As storms develop/move east over the next several hours the potential will exist for a couple of storms to produce strong surface wind gusts and perhaps hail. Any sustained storm in the vicinity of the front across the northern peninsula this evening would have at least some potential for a tornado given modestly-enhanced low-level SRH. The expected severe coverage should remain isolated and a watch is not anticipated. ..Bunting/Dial.. 04/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29388483 29458561 29658604 30238617 30468544 30458379 30408306 30258196 29568175 29178220 29038328 29388483 NNNN