ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160830 
SPC MCD 160830 
LAZ000-TXZ000-161100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160830Z - 161100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong wind gusts potential
will exist early this morning across parts of southern Louisiana.
The threat is expected to remain localized and weather watch
issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Over the last few hours, a small cluster of strong
thunderstorms has developed in the Sabine River Valley. This cluster
is being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough
currently moving through the southern Plains. A short line segment
at the western end of the cluster appears to to be an organized
supercell but elevated in nature. This storm will continue to move
eastward along a gradient of instability, with the RAP analyzing
MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. This combined with about 70 kt
of westerly flow in the mid-levels will support an isolated severe
threat over the next few hours. Large hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible. Storm coverage is expected to remain relatively
isolated. For this reason, weather watch issuance is not expected.

..Broyles/Grams.. 04/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31089330 31049361 30879385 30719395 30539401 30239390
            30159374 30019327 29889279 29799209 29799163 29989143
            30229136 30479139 30709166 30969231 31069294 31089330 

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