ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141743 
SPC MCD 141743 
TXZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141743Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be
accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally
strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon.  A WW may be
required.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the
Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau. 
Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties,
with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.

Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area,
continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap
locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries
where ascent is locally maximized.  With steep lapse rates overlying
this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment
-- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg
across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with
the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.

While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest
low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies
are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and
even some mid-level updraft rotation.  As such, potential for hail
and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of
the strongest storms.  We will continue to monitor development, for
signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475
            28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811 

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