ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130226 
SPC MCD 130226 
TXZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 130226Z - 130330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe hail threat may continue with existing
storms for a couple more hours. A localized extension of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #093 may be needed if storms maintain their
intensity.

DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells have initiated along the
trailing portion of a near-stationary cold front across Sutton and
Kimble Counties in southwest Texas. Latest MRMS mosaic radar data
shows 50+ dBZ cores reaching 35 kft, with MESH values nearing 2.0
inch diameters. Despite the intensity of the ongoing storms,
convective inhibition is gradually increasing in the midst of
nocturnal cooling. As such, these storms are not expected to be
particularly long-lived. Still, storms may continue for another hour
or so while producing severe hail given the presence of 9+ C/km
700-500 mb lapse rates (per 00Z DRT observed sounding) and resultant
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE (when modified to match the latest KJCT METAR
observations, representative of the storm-relative environment). A
2.0 inch stone also cannot be completely ruled out. A localized
extension of WW 093 could be necessary should the storms maintain
intensity through 03Z.

..Squitieri.. 04/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29680188 30900087 31399988 31529933 31369865 31059814
            30659818 30359885 29829956 29440003 29120029 28960070
            29680188 

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