ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091825 
SPC MCD 091825 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas...northern
Louisiana...southeastern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

Valid 091825Z - 092000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to gradually increase and
intensify, with a period of rapid intensification possible by 3-5
PM, as activity spreads into the lower Mississippi Valley.  The
potential for large, damaging hail will increase along with the risk
for damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent in the left exit region of
the approaching strong high-level jet, mid-level convection
continues to increase in an area now centered across the Ark-La-Tex
region.  This has included a number occasionally intensifying
embedded cells, but activity has yet to root within the surrounding
destabilizing boundary  layer.  To the east of the ongoing activity,
the latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate that moisture return
and low-level ascent supported by warm advection will contribute to
further deepening of the boundary-layer, beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed-layer air. 
Increasing inflow of this air (with mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
2000-3000 J/kg) seems likely to contribute to rapid intensification
of this convection by 20-22Z, if not before, as it spreads across
northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta
region.  In addition to increasing potential for large, damaging
hail, and localized strong surface gusts, further upscale convective
growth and organization is possible as surface cold pools begin to
develop and consolidate.

..Kerr.. 04/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   32169536 32349398 33009359 33399229 34069170 34439154
            34989121 34898996 33768977 32479101 31759255 31409365
            31349514 32169536 

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