ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312224 
SPC MCD 312224 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Areas affected...eastern South Carolina...southern North
Carolina...southeastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 312224Z - 010030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail or wind is possible for a few hours
centered over eastern South Carolina. A watch is not expected due to
storm coverage and duration.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and radar show outflow boundaries
progressing east/southeastward from eastern NC into central SC and
east-central GA. Cooler air with outflow-reinforced sea breeze is
also undercutting some of these storms. Scattered storms persist
ahead of these boundaries, with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer
shear around 40 kt will likely support isolated strong or severe
cells into early evening while the air mass remains uncapped.
Effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is a bit low for supercells, but may
support weak rotation in the near term before the air mass is
overturned and temperatures cool.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   33458207 33608131 34158026 34747925 34767869 34637830
            34387815 34117813 33887830 33767865 33197910 32817956
            32528001 32068070 31638102 31248120 31218163 31478208
            32238253 32838252 33088237 33458207 

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