ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310255 
SPC MCD 310255 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-310500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana to Northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 310255Z - 310500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms, with isolated severe, are possible
from northeast Louisiana to northern Mississippi over the next
several hours. Primary threat is gusty winds and perhaps a brief,
weak tornado.

DISCUSSION...Over the last few hours an expanding corridor of
convection has gradually matured into a slow-moving MCS that is
centered over western TN. This activity is shifting east but a
trailing band of scattered strong storms arcs from the body of the
MCS, southwest across northern MS into northeast LA. At times a few
updrafts along the trailing flank have expressed some robustness
with weak supercellular characteristics. 00z soundings from JAN and
SHV exhibited strong surface-6km bulk shear with 0-3km SRH on the
order of 250 M2/S2. Environmental parameters appear adequate for the
maintenance of a few strong storms as this activity spreads
downstream. Even so, aside from gusty winds at times, only a brief
weak tornado appears possible with these pre-frontal storms. Unless
this convection intensifies radar trends do not warrant a severe
thunderstorm watch.

..Darrow/Edwards.. 03/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32959208 34908974 34618871 33408975 32479161 32959208 

NNNN