ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 281724 SPC MCD 281724 MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-281930- Mesoscale Discussion 0300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Areas affected...Central and eastern Virginia into Maryland and Delaware. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281724Z - 281930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...1720 UTC satellite and surface obs shows partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 70s F across much of southeastern Virginia. To the west and north, greater cloud coverage was noted with a line of showers along a pre-frontal trough from south-central Virginia into northern Maryland. Gradual destabilization is occurring to the east of these showers with SPC mesoanalysis indicating 500-100 J/kg of MLCAPE developing associated with low-level moist advection of dewpoints in the 60s F. Despite increasing cloud cover, slow destabilization should continue through the first half of the afternoon from southeastern Virginia northward toward the southern Pennsylvania border. Some hi-res guidance suggests a few thunderstorms may evolve out of the ongoing shower activity early this afternoon as the pre-frontal trough continues eastward. Storms that develop will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado given strong low and mid-level flow across much of the Mid Atlantic. However, there remains substantial uncertainty on thunderstorm initiation early this afternoon given weak destabilization and subtle forcing for ascent. A second round of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the eastward moving cold front across central Virginia later this afternoon. While surface conditions remain much cooler and drier, cloud breaks across the region should allow some destabilization through the afternoon. Forecast models show veered but elongated hodographs supportive of damaging wind gusts with linear storms along and ahead of the front later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Trends will be monitored for a possible weather watch this afternoon/evening. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36517603 36467725 36527814 36627877 37007910 37587883 38367832 39187739 39487665 39417575 39337547 39057524 38697505 38327505 37937519 37337548 36917573 36617588 36517603 NNNN