ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 251558 
SPC MCD 251558 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi...parts of
southwest Tennessee...northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 251558Z - 251830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form over the next couple hours
over central and western Mississippi. Supercells are likely, with
tornado threat increasing as cells mature and move northeast toward
Alabama. Watch will be issues soon.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface obs indicate the air mass
continues to destabilize with areas of heating, as temperatures rise
into the mid 70s F over the warm sector. This is sufficiently warm
for surface-based parcels. Indications are that cells may develop
both ahead of the cold front due to a very moist warm sector, and
along the front itself. Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen
storms, which will gain intensity and tornado potential as they
mature and continue northeastward across MS and into AL. The threat
may extend into southern TN as well, once the warm front lifts
there.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34518723 33648755 32818831 32098988 31999016 31929073
            31999125 32249135 32749119 33559059 34488978 34818934
            34908869 34928788 34798752 34518723 

NNNN