ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250328 
SPC MCD 250328 
TXZ000-250430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Areas affected...parts of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

Valid 250328Z - 250430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

SUMMARY...A focused corridor for higher hail potential appears to be
maximizing over parts of the Edwards Plateau through 1100-1130pm
CDT.  Very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is possible with the
stronger supercells embedded within this thunderstorm cluster.

DISCUSSION...MRMS MESH and single site WSR-88D imagery recently
showed a very intense supercell over Kimble County, TX with hail
potentially 2-3 inches in diameter.  This storm has formed on the
southern periphery of a cluster of convection near the front draped
southwest to northeast.  Additional storm development is likely on
the southwestern flank as storms break the cap near Val Verde
County.  The latest RAP forecast sounding for Junction, TX shows
strong effective shear (55+ kt) with a 500 mb temperature at -19 deg
C---very favorable for supercell hail production.  A long hodograph
supported by 135 kt 300 mb flow (reference the 02 UTC Junction RAP
sounding) will favor ample updraft venting and hail production with
the more dominant cells over the next hour.  The very large hail
threat may gradually wane beyond 1130pm as the convective mode/cell
interference lessens the risk.

..Smith.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30200073 29730079 30409936 31049933 30200073 

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