ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221701 
SPC MCD 221701 
OKZ000-TXZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Areas affected...South/Southeast TX Panhandle...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 221701Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually increase over the next few hours. Some of these storms may
become strong enough to produce large hail and/or damaging wind
gusts. A watch may eventually become needed to address this severe
potential.

DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough
continues to increase across the southern High Plains. Modestly
increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating are also
occurring over portions of the Permian Basin/TX South Plains. This
modest increase in low-level moisture and surface temperatures
coupled with the cold mid-level temperatures already in place is 
contributing to modest instability and the presence of a few deeper
convective cores.

Recent surface observations place the surface low preceding the
shortwave trough over near HOB (in southwest NM). Visible satellite
imagery reveals a more coherent band of altocumulus from very near
HOB to just east of PEQ, demarcating the dryline well. Northeastward
progress of this low and coinciding eastward/northeastward push of
the dryline is expectation to result in a gradually increase of
storm coverage and intensity over the next several hours. Large hail
and/or damaging wind gusts are possible within the stronger storms.

..Mosier/Hart.. 03/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   34130230 35190164 35540084 35089997 32330034 32350264
            34130230 

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