ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171635 
SPC MCD 171635 
LAZ000-TXZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Texas and western Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 28...

Valid 171635Z - 171800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues.

SUMMARY...A new watch may be needed south of Watch 28 across
southeast Texas and western Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...The well-developed squall line has started to break up
and weaken across northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas where the
line has moved ahead of the front. However, stronger storms continue
farther south where storms are closer to the surface front in an
area of greater low-level convergence. These storms extend into
southeast Texas where no watch is currently in effect and thus a new
watch may need to be issued soon. The current tornado threat is
somewhat lower with southern extent as low-level wind fields are
quite unidirecitonal. However, the low-level jet is expected to
strengthen over the next few hours which may increase the tornado
threat. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat in
the near term given around 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective
shear around 50 knots.

..Bentley/Grams.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   32629374 32689292 32349220 31719225 30239289 29739311
            29669383 29369449 28979509 28869532 29079582 29729573
            32629374 

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