ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171238 
SPC MCD 171238 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-171345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern AR...northern MS...and far
southwestern TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 26...

Valid 171238Z - 171345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 26 continues.

SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including a few tornadoes, remain
possible in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Primary severe risk at the moment across Tornado Watch
26 remains focused over northern MS with an ongoing supercell. The
12Z sounding from JAN indicated a favorable low-level wind profile
for updraft rotation, but instability remains a somewhat limiting
factor. Low-level southerly flow should continue to gradually
increase over the next couple of hours, and storms that can interact
with the warm front may pose a tornado threat given effective SRH of
200-250 m2/s2. Any semi-discrete supercells may also have an
isolated large hail and damaging wind threat. The overall severe
threat this morning should remain fairly isolated, with a much more
substantial risk for all hazards, including strong tornadoes, likely
to develop later this afternoon.

..Gleason.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34439174 34899142 35369007 35348868 34888821 34208826
            34118965 34179070 34439174 

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