ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162302 
SPC MCD 162302 
OKZ000-TXZ000-170030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 162302Z - 170030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may develop across the Texas
Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma this evening. If storms can
intensify, a risk for strong winds and large hail will be possible.
Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery showed deepening
convective towers along a dryline and south of a warm front in the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Storm initiation appears possible along
this corridor over the next few hours as inhibition is diminished
from increasing lift ahead of a compact shortwave trough ejecting
east across the Rockies, and rapid low-level theta E advection
across central Texas/Oklahoma. 22z SPC mesoanalysis/surface obs show
low 50s and upper 40s dewpoints streaming northward ahead of the
developing convection, resulting in 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt, orthogonal to the dryline, will favor
a somewhat high based supercellular mode with a risk of large hail
and damaging wind gusts. 

If storms can develop, there is some uncertainty on the character of
the severe threat into south-central Oklahoma where greater moisture
and instability are likely to develop this evening. A watch may be
needed, but is conditional upon strong storm development/longevity.

..Lyons/Hart.. 03/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35559921 35569852 35219773 34639756 34269792 34139813
            33879880 33639939 33389990 33310034 33240059 33420085
            33680098 34270115 34520138 34790087 35339988 35559921 

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