ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 141842 SPC MCD 141842 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-142045- Mesoscale Discussion 0177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado into the northwestern Kansas and adjacent southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141842Z - 142045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may continue to develop and intensify through late afternoon. Peak intensities are expected to remain generally weak, but the more vigorous activity may pose a risk for mainly small hail and gusty winds. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is underway along the occluded surface frontal zone, northeast of the surface cyclone center, across northeastern Colorado into areas near or just south of the western Kansas/Nebraska border area. This is being aided by steepening lapse rates with insolation, beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temps aob -25C). Further intensification into low-topped thunderstorms appears possible through 21-22Z, although this will be inhibited, at least to a degree, by relatively dry lower/mid tropospheric air. Mixed-layer CAPE may remain on the order of a couple hundred J/kg or so, and lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields along the front are in the process of weakening. As a result, any sustained thunderstorm activity seems likely to remain weak. However, given the steepening low-level lapse rates rates with continuing insolation, and the generally cold thermodynamic profiles, small hail may be possible along with some gusty winds. It might not be out the question that ambient vertical vorticity along the boundary, coupled with low-level upward vertical motion beneath the stronger updrafts, could become supportive of a "landspout" type tornado. However, it appears that any such activity should be fairly isolated, brief and very weak. ..Kerr.. 03/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39700290 40020204 40100124 40070067 39759978 39549984 39710084 39770131 39400240 39700290 NNNN