ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050116 
SPC MCD 050116 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 050116Z - 050415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...One or two strong to severe storms are possible in the
coming hours for western OK as thermodynamic profiles become more
favorable for robust convection. Hail, and perhaps a few instances
of damaging wind, will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends over the past couple of
hours have shown isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
southwest KS in the vicinity of the surface low and southward into
western OK along the mid-level trough axis/surface dryline. Despite
favorable deep layer shear (around 30-40 knots effective bulk wind
shear), these storms have largely been transient in nature due to
the limited instability across the region (only around 250 J/kg
MUCAPE per recent RAP mesoanalysis and 30 J/kg MUCAPE noted in the
00 UTC DDC sounding).

However, the eastward progression of the shortwave trough should
allow temperatures to cool within the 700-400 mb layer in the coming
hours. Additionally, weak moisture return will continue to advect
low 40s dewpoints into western OK. Steepening lapse rates over a
somewhat moistening boundary layer should support higher instability
in the 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE range and a better chance for a few
organized storms after 02 UTC. Nearly zonal deep layer shear across
the trough axis and modest forcing for ascent should yield discrete
to clusters of storms that will pose a threat for isolated hail.
Low-level lapse rates near 7 C/km above a shallow nocturnal
inversion may allow for a few instances of damaging wind. Given the
isolated nature of the threat, no watch is needed.

..Moore/Thompson.. 03/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   34559979 35150002 35829998 36440007 36650019 36820012
            37110010 37189975 37269941 37279895 37069864 36629822
            36129803 35699803 34949817 34679844 34479907 34439956
            34559979 

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