ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282025 
SPC MCD 282025 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-282230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...northeast Texas through southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12...

Valid 282025Z - 282230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12
continues.

SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and locally strong to
damaging wind gusts remain possible through early evening across the
remaining portion of severe thunderstorm watch 12 from northeast
Texas into southwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...General trend has been for storms to decrease in
coverage in wake of initial activity, possibly due to weak forcing
for ascent upstream of early impulse. Low-level winds have veered to
southwesterly in the warm sector, and widespread clouds persist
which is limiting boundary layer destabilization. However, a minor
upstream vorticity maximum will move northeast and interact with the
cold front later this afternoon, and might contribute to development
of additional storms along the front. Instability remains modest
with with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. Though low-level winds are
relatively weak and veered immediately in advance of the cold front,
strong effective bulk shear in excess of 60 kt should support a
conditional risk for a few organized structures with large hail and
damaging wind the main threats.

..Dial.. 02/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32689654 34009477 34569385 34529339 33599343 33019396
            32489527 32359607 32689654 

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