ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180144 
SPC MCD 180144 
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-180615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 180144Z - 180615Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle
Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in
observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at
times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at
midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible.

DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed
within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern
Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce
moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will
continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as
well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for
moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z
BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850
mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With
low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it
is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with
southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to
east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the
dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage.
Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.

..Wendt.. 02/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35338765 35628785 36268750 36928631 37628510 38638257
            38228213 37548240 36948317 35898473 35248580 35068642
            35008701 35338765 

NNNN