ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171338 
SPC MCD 171338 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-171745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...far east TX...southwest into west-central and
northeast LA

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 171338Z - 171745Z

SUMMARY...Heavy freezing rain rates are forecast to develop and
spread into central LA over the next few hours.  Rates 0.10 to 0.30
inch per 3 hours are probable.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 730am CST shows an expanding
precipitation shield across southeast/east TX moving into western
portions of LA.  Strengthening low-level warm air advection atop a
shallow sub-freezing layer is providing ample lift.  The 6am CST
Lake Charles raob showed a vertical profile supporting freezing
rain, whereas Shreveport farther north where the cold air is deeper
near the surface, supports mainly a sleet/freezing rain mixture. 
Surface observations over east TX the past few hours have recorded
varying liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts.  Lufkin was located
in a heavier precipitation band and recorded 0.25 inch in 1 hour
between 6-7am CST.  Expecting the continuation of moderate to
locally heavy freezing rain rates through the late morning as the
precipitation develops east-northeast across LA.  Some of the
heavier bursts of freezing rain may be augmented by convection.

..Smith.. 02/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31729388 32429254 32419158 32039118 31359160 30249321
            30249378 30749409 31209407 31729388 

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