ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152332 
SPC MCD 152332 
FLZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the east central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152332Z - 160130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two is possible across east
central portions of the Florida Peninsula, near the Space Coast,
between now and 8-9 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Beneath strong (around 50 kt at 500 mb), broadly
cyclonic mid-level flow, isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
has initiated along a pre-frontal low-level confluence zone across
interior portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula.  This is
occurring where daytime heating contributed to peaked mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg.  

Although boundary-layer cooling is now underway, strong deep-layer
shear may allow for further intensification of a few cells for
another couple of hours.  This could include the evolution of
supercell structures with the potential to produce severe hail and
locally strong wind, which should tend to advect north-northeastward
with an eastward propagation, toward the vicinity of the Space Coast
through early this evening.  Low-level hodographs appear generally
weak, but some enhancement due to backed, south-southeasterly flow
near the coast could contribute to some risk for a tornado.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   29038120 29158084 28508047 27918043 27348068 27568112
            28248129 28618124 29038120 

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