ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 151724 SPC MCD 151724 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151830- Mesoscale Discussion 0089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southeastern Alabama...and southwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151724Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Risk for severe storms -- including potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes -- will increase into this afternoon, as warm/moist air moves gradually inland. A tornado watch will be needed, most likely between 1830Z and 19Z. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the warm front -- at the leading edge of a fairly well-modified Gulf boundary layer -- still offshore over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, but shifting slowly/steadily northward. A small band of thunderstorms -- exhibiting well-defined updraft rotation -- are ongoing south of Mobile Bay, in very close proximity to the surface low. As the low deepens and shifts northeastward in response to the mid-level trough that will continue to pivot quickly northeastward across the central Gulf Coast region and Mid South today, expect resulting low-level theta-e advection to yield continued/gradual destabilization inland. While it remains difficult to discern how far northward true surface-based CAPE will develop due to the persistent/cool boundary layer in place, at least near-surface-based storms are expected to spread as far north as far southeastern Alabama and into southwestern Georgia later this afternoon. Meanwhile, the background shear profiles remain quite favorable for rotating storms, with low-level east-southeasterly flow near the warm front veering/increasing rapidly with height to south-southwesterly at 50 kt at 1km, per the latest KEVX WSR-88D VWP. This flow field is suggestive of low-level vortex generation and at least some risk for a strong tornado, though near-surface thermodynamics remain a question mark as to degree of tornado risk. Still, risk appears great enough -- especially with southward extent toward the coast -- that a tornado watch will be required. ..Goss/Grams.. 02/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29158775 29728777 30038808 30558753 31168648 31798521 31908367 31498310 30238337 28948443 29158775 NNNN