ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 150453 SPC MCD 150453 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-150900- Mesoscale Discussion 0083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas into central and southern Louisiana Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 150453Z - 150900Z SUMMARY...The development of scattered weak thunderstorm activity and increasing precipitation rates are expected through 1-3 AM CST across the Greater Houston Metropolitan area, and the remainder of southeast Texas into southern and central Louisiana. This probably will include freezing rain, at least initially, before changing over to mostly sleet across southeast Texas into southwestern Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Sub-freezing surface air has reached southeast Texas through south central Louisiana coastal areas, where lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is contributing to developing convection and associated precipitation. Models suggest that modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer, coupled with differential thermal advection aloft with the continued gradual approach of a vigorous mid-level trough, may increasingly contribute to destabilization supportive of convection capable of producing lightning through the 07-09Z time frame. As this occurs, there appears increasing potential for precipitation rates to occasionally exceed .25 inches per hour. With at least some further warming above the freezing mark ongoing in the 850-700 mb layer, this precipitation may initially be in the form of freezing rain, particularly in the more vigorous convection. However, model output also indicates that the the sub-freezing surface-based layer will also gradually deepen across southeastern Texas into southwestern Louisiana during this time. This is expected to be accompanied by increasing probabilities for precipitation to change over to sleet (and probably snow north of a College Station/Lufkin TX line by 09Z). ..Kerr.. 02/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29719539 30499510 30899433 31339370 31489133 30799073 29869199 29899347 29429488 29409523 29719539 NNNN