ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111513 
SPC MCD 111513 
TXZ000-111915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 111513Z - 111915Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across
central TX during the next several hours. Some sleet is also
possible.

DISCUSSION...Persistent isentropic ascent will persist ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains for at least
the next several hours. Expectation is for the ongoing band of
precipitation from the Edwards Plateau into central TX to continue
while gradually shifting northeastward. Current surface analysis
places the freezing line from about 20-30 miles north of DRT
northeastward to just south of AUS and then further northeastward
into east TX. This cold air is shallow, with forecast soundings
showing sub-freezing temperatures extend to about 2000-2500 ft with
temperatures continuing to increase above that level to around 10
deg C by 3500-400 ft (around 850 mb). 

This warm noise above the shallow cold layer is expected to result
in primarily freezing rain, although some sleet could also mix in.
Relatively dry mid-levels currently in place are expected to moisten
over time, contributing to heavier precipitation rates at the
surface. Most sites are not currently reporting precipitation at the
surface but that is expected to change soon as the precipitation
rates increase. One exception at Llano, TX (AQO) which reported
0.05" of liquid over the past hour. Additionally, Burnett, TX (BMQ)
reported 0.02" of ice accretion over the past hour. This trend of
measurable precipitation at the surface and ice accretion is
expected to continue eastward into more of central TX over the next
several hours.

..Mosier.. 02/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30710054 31869830 31979618 30919617 29890020 30710054 

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