ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271350 
SPC MCD 271350 
GAZ000-FLZ000-271545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern
GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271350Z - 271545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may exist this morning, with
strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado possible. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped supercell over the central FL Panhandle
has shown signs of low-level rotation over the 30 minutes or so.
Modest low-level warm advection is aiding convective development
across this area along/south of a surface boundary, which is draped
generally east-west across the FL Panhandle and into southern GA.
Although the latest VWP from KTLH shows winds generally veered to
southwesterly in the 0-1 km layer, there is strengthening with
height to around 30 kt at 1 km. Low-level shear may also be modestly
enhanced near the surface boundary, where 100-150 m2/s2 of effective
SRH is present per mesoanalysis estimates. Given the low-level
rotation already observed in the supercell along the boundary, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated strong/gusty winds may
also occur. The 12Z sounding from TLH showed poor low-level lapse
rates and limited boundary-layer instability. This should tend to
limit the overall severe threat, and a watch is not currently
expected.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30448582 30948511 31158450 31208394 30978370 30628400
            30448441 30218501 30128558 30448582 

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