ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161952 
SPC MCD 161952 
MSZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Northern/Central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 161952Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective line approaching northern/central MS is
expected to strengthen as it continues eastward. Damaging wind gusts
and embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible. A Tornado Watch will be
needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a convective line stretching
from OLV along the MS/TN border southwestward into northern LA. The
downstream air mass continues to destabilize and recent trends
within this radar imagery suggest the intensity of this convective
line is strengthening (evidenced by both increasing storm speed and
higher echo tops) especially near the AR/LA/MS border intersection.
Vertical shear is expected to remain strong and the approaching
shortwave trough will provide increased large-scale forcing for
ascent. All of these factors suggest the ongoing line will
strengthen as it continues eastward in northern/central MS. Primary
severe threat is expected to be damaging wind gusts, but the
strengthening low-level winds and persisting deep-layer shear
suggest there is also a threat for embedded QLCS tornadoes. A
Tornado Watch will be needed soon to cover this potential severe
threat.

..Mosier/Grams.. 12/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34438997 34898955 34948864 34598824 33878832 32848892
            33169080 34438997 

NNNN