ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161636 
SPC MCD 161636 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...central/southern Illinois

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 161636Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...A banded area of primarily snow is expect from near St.
Louis to portions of central Illinois. Areas of 1 inch per hour
rates are possible with isolated higher rates less common. South of
this zone, a mix of freezing rain and snow is likely.

DISCUSSION...As strong mid-level ascent continues to move northeast
out of southern Missouri, an area of precipitation should progress
through southeastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois.
Current surface observations combined with KLSX dual-polarization
data show a precipitation transition zone from Crawford County, MO
to near Clinton County, IL. Over the course of the past hour, the
dual-polarization data also suggest that this zone has shifted
somewhat southeastward on account of cooling within the profile due
to heavier precipitation. Forecast soundings continue to depict a
relatively deep, near freezing isothermal layer from 850-700 mb
across the region. This should keep precipitation a mix of freezing
rain/snow in parts of southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois.
North of this zone, precipitation will primarily remain as snow.
There is enough ascent within the dendritic growth zone to support 1
inch per hour snow rates. Isolated pockets of higher rates are
possible, but not expected to be widespread.

..Wendt.. 12/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37769276 38749197 39249096 39558932 39688810 39678742
            39558711 39468690 39078686 38158745 37578836 37149031
            36799212 36789279 37169311 37769276 

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