ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161602 
SPC MCD 161602 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161800-

Mesoscale Discussion 2203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central LA...Southern/East-Central
AR...Far Northwest MS...Far Southwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161602Z - 161800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible from northwest LA across
southern/west-central AR into far northwest MS and far southwest TN
over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across northwest/north-central LA and southern/east-central
AR for the next several hours as strong warm-air advection persists
across the front. Strong and deep mid to upper-level southwesterly
winds are also expected to persist during this time, contributing to
moderate-strong vertical shear and the potential for a few rotating
updrafts capable of marginally severe hail. Overall severe coverage
is expected to be isolated, precluding the need for a watch. Even
so, convective trends are being monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 12/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34129039 33449206 32779314 32289399 33149405 34009349
            35529052 34848966 34129039 

NNNN