ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262104 
SPC MCD 262104 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-262300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

Areas affected...Louisiana...Arkansas...Arklatex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262104Z - 262300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity, mainly from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. A few
supercells are possible, with tornado threat. Damaging wind gusts
may also occur.

DISCUSSION...Extensive clouds remain over most of the region, the
exception being over parts of Louisiana where breaks in the clouds
have lead to mid to upper 70s F temperatures. Here, a few deeper
showers/small storms have shown signs of rotation in a moist and
marginally unstable air mass. Strong southwest winds in the
low-levels will continue to bring upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints
northward out of Louisiana. 

By virtue of a gradually deepening moist boundary layer and subtle
warm advection, lift may be sufficient for at least isolated severe
storms across the moist sector well ahead of the main front/dryline.
Shear profiles across the entire region are quite strong, and favor
supercellular storm mode with 300+ effective SRH and long hodographs
overall.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 11/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31659144 31729360 31859425 32239454 32679458 33319449
            34049418 34729349 35049269 35069165 34779083 34109055
            33549059 32849062 31909096 31659144 

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