ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310141 
SPC MCD 310141 
ALZ000-MSZ000-310345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana into central
Mississippi...west-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 310141Z - 310345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible over the next several
hours ahead of a cold front. Strong wind gusts or a brief/weak
tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to develop into western LA and
AR, with a quasi-stationary front extending from northeast LA across
central MS and into northern AL. Ahead of these boundaries, a moist
air mass exists with precipitable water values of 2.00-2.20" over LA
and southern MS, and 70s F dewpoints.

Recent convective trends have been increasing over LA and MS, in a
zone of increasing warm air advection ahead of the cold front. Here,
effective SRH is averaging near 100 m2/s2, with similar values of
0-1 km SRH near the front over central MS.

As the upper trough continues to deepen and height falls overspread
the area tonight, shear will increase gradually with 850 mb
southwesterlies to 40 kt by 06Z. This will provide a more favorable
environment for a few severe storms, the limiting factor being
instability. However, the deep moist layer as seen on 00Z soundings
and increasing lift (especially as the cold front surges) may
counteract marginal thermodynamics to support at least isolated
severe storms. Storm trends will continue to be monitored, with
watch potential hinging mainly on severe coverage.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32339026 32868985 33268940 33538876 33488829 33148802
            32538803 32208816 31568896 31248963 31029047 31049078
            31229089 31659074 32339026 

NNNN