ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202243 
SPC MCD 202243 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast TX...Far Southwest
AR...Northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202243Z - 210045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional risk for a severe thunderstorm exist across
north-central/northeast TX, far southwest AR, and northwest LA for
the next several hours. While watch issuance is possible in the
short-term, a greater likelihood for watch issuance is expected
later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown several attempts at
more persistent deep convection fail, likely as a result of too much
dry-air entrainment. New attempts are occurring near Anderson County
TX, where lightning was observed around 2215Z. This area is
displaced south of the stronger forcing for ascent, with much of the
development thus far resulting from warm-air advection. Given this
lack of stronger forcing for ascent, the expectation is for storms
to continuing struggling with updraft maintenance for the next 2-3
hours. However, if a storm is able to overcome the dry-air
entrainment and persist, the kinematic environment is favorable for
organization and a resulting severe threat. All severe hazards are
possible. Observational trends will be monitored closely for signs
of updraft persistence and organization. Later this evening (i.e.
after 02Z), a strengthening low-level jet could result in higher
probability for storm organization within this pre-frontal warm
sector. Even later this evening (i.e. after 06Z), widespread
thunderstorms (some severe) are possible in this area along the cold
front.

..Mosier/Grams.. 10/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32799810 33799685 33639372 32339243 31339434 31649764
            32799810 

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