ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 201209 
SPC MCD 201209 
NCZ000-201415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Areas affected...Coastal NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201209Z - 201415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado or two will be possible this morning, but threat
appears too limited for watch issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...At 12Z, the remnant circulation of Nestor is centered
over northeast SC, with a warm front extending northeastward into
southeast NC, and east-southeastward from there towards the Outer
Banks. Low-level hodographs remain enlarged near and north of the
warm front, as noted in the recent VWP and 12Z sounding from MHX.
Instability remains a limiting factor for the tornado threat, but a
narrow zone of overlap between weak but nonzero surface-based
buoyancy and enhanced low-level shear/helicity will spread northward
in conjunction with the warm front across coastal NC and the Outer
Banks this morning. Any semi-discrete convective elements within the
larger precipitation shield may pose some (likely brief) tornado
threat as they traverse this zone. 

The tornado threat is expected to remain too limited in magnitude
and spatial extent for watch issuance. Any remaining tornado threat
will end from west-to-east later this morning, as the midlevel dry
slot overtakes the region.

..Dean/Edwards.. 10/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON   34477736 35137675 36077568 35797546 35487541 35057558
            34687597 34227649 34047701 34097723 34477736 

NNNN