ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191300 
SPC MCD 191300 
FLZ000-191430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Areas affected...Coastal sections of the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191300Z - 191430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and/or locally damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts will be present this morning associated with
Tropical Storm Nestor.

DISCUSSION...An increase in cellular convection has been noted over
the last hour offshore of the FL Panhandle. While potential for
substantial destabilization inland is limited, sufficient buoyancy
and low-level shear/helicity near the surface warm front will
support the potential for at least transient rotation and the
potential for a tornado and/or locally damaging convective wind
gusts along coastal portions of the FL Panhandle this morning, as
T.S. continues to move northeastward. Due to the limited magnitude
and areal extent of the threat, watch issuance is currently not
anticipated.

..Dean/Edwards.. 10/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   29998558 30228432 30098350 29678319 29268350 29548402
            29598444 29558497 29508540 29998558 

NNNN