ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190901 
SPC MCD 190901 
FLZ000-191030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Areas affected...Central/northern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 675...

Valid 190901Z - 191030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 675 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a few tornadoes and locally strong wind gusts
will continue this morning.

DISCUSSION...At 0845Z, the strongest convection in/near WW 675 is
ongoing off of the FL East Coast, and also across portions of the
west-central Peninsula. Persistent rotating cells east of Cape
Canaveral will continue to pose a threat of waterspouts, but this
threat is expected to remain generally offshore for the next few
hours. 

Further west, a cluster of convection that developed earlier over
southwest FL is moving north-northeastward. Weak rotation has
occasionally been noted with convective elements within this
cluster. As this cluster approaches the diffuse warm-frontal zone
across the central/northern Peninsula, some uptick in the tornado
threat is possible, given 0-1 km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 noted
in the TBW VWP and recent objective mesoanalyses. 

As T.S. Nestor continues to move north-northeastward toward the FL
Panhandle, offshore convection will gradually spread into western
portions of the FL Peninsula through mid morning. Some tornado
threat will persist with this round of convection as well,
especially with cells interacting with the effective warm front,
which is expected to gradually move northward with time through the
morning.

..Dean.. 10/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26318276 27418299 27938300 28588280 28938270 29318242
            29818118 29768031 28137977 27498099 26748118 26288133
            26198213 26318276 

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