ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202350 
SPC MCD 202350 
MNZ000-NDZ000-210115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Areas affected...Central/Eastern North Dakota and Northwest
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 202350Z - 210115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms will likely
enter/continue downstream of WW 654. A new watch will likely be
issued within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows multiple clusters of storms
throughout the warm sector over portions of central/eastern North
Dakota. Convection that developed along/near a cold front within WW
654 has congealed into a north-south oriented line, with the
strongest storms currently residing in northeastern North Dakota
along/near a warm front. Other convection has freely developed
within the warm sector across portions of southeastern North Dakota
in response to a subtle mid-level short-wave trough in concert with
synoptic-scale height falls.

Although uncertainty exists in the short-term evolution of the
ongoing convective clusters, it seems likely that upscale growth of
storms over central North Dakota will continue and begin exiting WW
654 within the next 1-2 hours. Meanwhile, storms across southeast
North Dakota should persist. Mesoanalysis over this region shows
3000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst weak deep-layer shear. However, RAP
soundings indicate the potential for an uptick in low-level shear,
perhaps to 30-35 kt. Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain the
primary threats with this activity. Thus, a new watch will likely be
needed for areas downstream of WW 654.

..Karstens/Edwards.. 09/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45999877 46450032 47850052 48839993 49029857 48929557
            47899511 46629504 45959591 45999877 

NNNN