ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021947 
SPC MCD 021947 
NDZ000-022115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Areas affected...Central ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 021947Z - 022115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible with the
line of storms moving quickly across central ND.

DISCUSSION...Current estimated storm motion on the
forward-propagating MCS moving through central ND is 290 degrees at
36 kt. Some increase in forward motion is possible over the next few
hours as mid-level flow gradually increases and the system matures.
Thus far, the primary threat with the MCS has been large hail, owing
to its predominantly elevated character. Moisture advection
continues within the downstream air mass but the low-level stratus
remains in place. Delayed erosion of this stratus layer has stunted
insolation immediately downstream of the MCS across central ND,
limiting destabilization (shown well on the 18Z BIS sounding). More
thinning of the stratus layer is beginning to occur across southeast
ND where temperatures are now in the upper 60s/low 70s. 

Current expectation is for the MCS to maintain strength as it
continues southeastward, perhaps increasing its forward speed.
Limited downstream destabilization has likely limited strong wind
gusts thus far. However, gusts are expected to become increasingly
likely this afternoon as the downstream air mass becomes more
favorable for surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 09/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48300267 48750127 47999804 46339851 46510218 48300267 

NNNN