ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 300731 
SPC MCD 300731 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Areas affected...southeast KS...southwest MO and far northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

Valid 300731Z - 300900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts are possible across southeast KS
into adjacent portions of northeast OK and southwest MO in the short
term. Trends will be monitored and a watch downstream of WW 628 may
become necessary soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong storms moving into southeast KS will
continue to shift east/southeast into adjacent portions of southwest
MO and northeast OK early this morning. Radar trends continue to
fluctuate and surface observations south and east of Wichita KS have
reported sub-severe gusts from around 35-48 mph. Further northeast
near Emporia KS, several reports of severe gusts from near 70-90 mph
were noted in the past hour. These strong gusts likely were
facilitated in part by merging outflow boundary in the vicinity of
an MCV over Osage County KS.  Southward into OK, the Oklahoma
Mesonet site at Newkirk reported a 71 mph gust at 0705z. 

While MLCIN has been increasing slightly, it will remain modest
across parts of northeast OK into southwest MO. Surface dewpoints in
the low 70s ahead of the bowing complex and steep 2-6 km lapse rates
will maintain a reservoir of moderate instability ahead of the line.
Additionally, a well established rear-inflow jet has been noted in
regional VWP data. While thermodynamic parameters favor a continued
downstream severe threat, the low level jet remains west of the
bowing complex. As such, longevity and coverage of the severe threat
remains in question. Nevertheless, at least a few damaging gusts
appear possible in the short term and a new watch may be needed
downstream if the recent re-intensification of the line persists.

..Leitman/Grams.. 08/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36139524 36419419 36449405 36809362 37329354 37889399
            38369449 38839531 38809560 38399566 37859593 37389635
            37189712 36809754 36479745 36259689 36119603 36139524 

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