ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160256 
SPC MCD 160256 
NEZ000-WYZ000-160500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Areas affected...central and southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160256Z - 160500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storm development over parts of central and
eastern Wyoming may continue/increase over the next few hours.  A WW
could become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of thunderstorms
initiating over parts of central and eastern Wyoming, with a
potentially severe storm now indicated near the Natrona/Converse
County line.  The storms are occurring near a northwest-to-southeast
axis of modest instability, within a zone of increasing large-scale
ascent ahead of a short-wave trough/vort max moving into northwest
Wyoming and adjacent southern Montana.

Over the next several hours, CAM solutions vary across this area,
but the general consensus is an increase in convective
coverage/intensity.  Given the CAPE axis, along with moderate
mid-level westerly flow atop the low-level easterlies, this increase
appears plausible.  While the need for a WW remains uncertain at
this time, we will continue to monitor convective trends, as it
relates to the potential need for a watch.

..Goss/Guyer.. 08/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   43350737 43630724 43440588 42930489 42220366 41650291
            41180373 41100555 42270714 42590773 43020760 43350737 

NNNN