ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 152051 SPC MCD 152051 MOZ000-KSZ000-152245- Mesoscale Discussion 1748 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern KS into far western MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152051Z - 152245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop over the next few hours. These storms could produce very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes. A watch will be needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues this afternoon across far southeast NE into northwest MO. These storms could pose a persistent hail threat over the next several hours. An outflow boundary associated with this convection is oriented roughly west to east from near CNK in north-central KS to near Kansas City. Strong heating to the south of this boundary has resulted in around 20-30 degrees temperatures difference across the boundary, with mid 80s to near 90 degrees south and mid 60s to mid 70s north. Surface dewpoints south of the boundary ranged from the upper 60s to low 70s, resulting in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and rapidly eroding inhibition. Evidence of the weakening EML has been noted over the last 30 minutes or so in GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery as the CU field in the vicinity of the outflow boundary has showing increasing vertical development. As warm advection increases and a low level jet begins to strengthen early this evening, convection is expected to develop near the outflow boundary by 00z. Weak upper forcing will likely allow discrete cells to persist initially before upscale growth become more likely with the increasing south/southwesterly low level jet between 00-03z. Effective shear greater than 40 kt and very steep midlevel lapse rates will support supercells capable of very large hail (some baseball or larger). Damaging wind gusts (some greater than 65 kt) also appears likely given steep low level lapse rates and midlevel dryness enhancing evaporative processing leading to intense downdrafts. Somewhat more uncertain is tornado potential. Backed low level flow in the vicinity of the outflow boundary will enhanced 0-3 km SRH values. However, aforementioned downdraft potential could be a mitigating factor in overall tornado potential. Nevertheless, overall environmental parameters support at least some tornado threat with any cells that remain discrete. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area by 23z. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37139517 37039599 37049687 37199770 37779863 38459895 38929893 39549872 39709849 39799751 39799601 39689548 39309455 39109429 38709410 38169419 37449447 37139517 NNNN