ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 152034 SPC MCD 152034 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-152230- Mesoscale Discussion 1747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...Portions of southern VA...NC...SC...and far eastern GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152034Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail threat should continue through the early evening. Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Around 20-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow will remain over southern VA, the Carolinas, and far eastern GA this afternoon as weak upper-level troughing persists over much of the eastern CONUS. Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across parts of southern VA along a weak surface front. This convection initially displayed supercell characteristics, but has recently become outflow dominant per radar imagery, with strong to locally damaging winds now the main threat. Additional storms have formed along a sea breeze in coastal NC where strong instability is present, but shear is generally weaker. Current expectations are for scattered storms to continue increasing in coverage across central NC/SC along a weak stationary front. The airmass across this region remains moderately unstable, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE estimated by 20Z mesoanalysis. Loosely organized multicell clusters should be the primary storm mode with southward extent across the Carolinas into far eastern GA as shear gradually decreases from north to south. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible as low-level lapse rates have become steepened. Marginally severe hail may also occur with transient supercells, mainly across southern VA into north-central NC where effective bulk shear is somewhat stronger. ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33078208 34038152 34638095 35887924 36927916 37387871 37527711 37177629 36457592 35517631 34757679 33877840 32438035 31848121 32258185 33078208 NNNN