ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150214 
SPC MCD 150214 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Areas affected...southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming and western
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 150214Z - 150345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue developing southeast through
northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota this evening, posing a
risk for isolated large hail and downburst winds. At this time it
appears storm coverage will probably remain too sparse for a WW, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of mid evening a few storms persist over southeast
MT, with the strongest storm having supercell characteristics
approaching the northeast WY border. The downstream atmosphere is
moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. A modest increase in
convective inhibition is occurring with respect to surface-based
parcels with onset of nocturnal cooling. However, a few storms may
persist with slightly elevated updrafts having inflow rooted just
above the surface. Thus isolated storms could persist into a portion
of western SD and extreme northeast WY and pose a threat for large
hail and downburst winds this evening. Stronger forcing accompanying
a shortwave trough moving through eastern MT should remain north of
this region. This along with the absence of a substantial low-level
jet suggest storm coverage will probably remain very isolated.

..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   43360396 44120500 44760594 45560411 44640295 43530271
            43360396 

NNNN