ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131732 
SPC MCD 131732 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-131930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Areas affected...Southern NE Panhandle/Southwest NE...Northeast
CO...Far Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 131732Z - 131930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
few hours. These storms could pose for all severe hazards and a
watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations reveal a low across
northeast CO with southeasterly upslope flow southeast of this low
across southwest NE and northwest KS. Dewpoints are generally in the
mid to upper 60s and mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000
J/kg with little remaining MLCIN. So far, sustained convection has
only developed within the storm over Garden County NE, but the
expectation is for continued surface convergence and further air
mass destabilization to result in increased thunderstorm coverage,
mainly over the southern NE Panhandle and northeast CO. 

This region is on the southern edge of the better flow aloft but
given the southeasterly low-level flow, the modest mid-level
westerly flow is still sufficient to produce effective bulk shear
around 40 kt and a supercell wind profile. An initial discrete
supercell mode is anticipated with upscale growth then possible as
cold pool amalgamate. Very large hail is primary threat with the
initially discrete storms. A tornado or two and strong wind gusts
are also possible. The primary threat will then likely transition to
strong wind gusts as storms become more linear and forward
propagating.

..Mosier/Grams.. 08/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40980365 41790337 41810208 41080135 39990105 39300234
            39770321 40980365 

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