ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101759 
SPC MCD 101759 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019

Areas affected...Western NC and adjacent portions of Upstate SC and
southwest VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101759Z - 102000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with the strongest cells capable of locally damaging wind and
perhaps marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage
early this afternoon across the higher terrain of western NC and
adjacent Upstate SC and southwest VA. Modest heating of a moist
environment has resulted in the development of MLCAPE in the
500-1000 J/kg range, while moderate mid/upper-level flow on the
periphery of a deep upper trough to the north is supporting
effective shear of 30-40 kt across the region. This environment will
support some potential for updraft organization, with the strongest
cells capable of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps
marginally severe hail. 

While a few marginally severe storms are possible this afternoon,
the overall threat is expected to remain too marginal for watch
issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35268277 35768242 36528153 37228102 37288024 37077963
            36297963 35677976 35178025 34938065 34838096 34768167
            34988274 35268277 

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